90% probability Chubb's Q3 2026 P&C combined ratio lands at or below 95% — still an underwriting profit, with the bar set 11 points above the 83.8% posted in Q2. Q3 is peak Atlantic hurricane season. Resolves ~27 Oct 2026.
Chubb reported a Q2 2026 P&C combined ratio of 83.8%, against a US industry average near 92.9%, with underwriting income up 18.8% to $1.94bn and catastrophe losses of $475m. Our ceiling sits 11pt above that print. Source: Chubb Q2 2026 results, 21 July 2026 (investors.chubb.com).
We lock a binary: Chubb Limited reports a third-quarter 2026 property & casualty combined ratio at or below 95%, per the company's results release. Confidence 90%.
A combined ratio below 100% means premiums exceeded claims and expenses. Chubb posted 83.8% in Q2 2026 with catastrophe losses already falling year-on-year, so our 95% ceiling allows roughly eleven points of deterioration before the call fails. Confidence 90% and not higher because the third quarter is peak Atlantic hurricane season and a single major landfall is the one event that moves this metric sharply. Scored on the reported consolidated P&C combined ratio, not the current-accident-year-excluding-catastrophes figure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-150 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against Chubb's reported third-quarter 2026 property & casualty combined ratio versus a 95% ceiling.
Q3 is peak Atlantic hurricane season — a major landfall is the disclosed tail and the one realistic miss path.