92% probability USD/JPY closes calendar 2026 inside a 140–180 band — roughly 12% either side of the 159.46 level on 13 August 2026. This is a volatility-band call; the direction is explicitly NOT predicted. Resolves 31 Dec 2026.
USD/JPY traded at 159.4570 on 13 August 2026, inside a weekly range of 157.38 to 159.50. The yen had strengthened about 1.7% over the prior month and weakened about 8% over twelve months. Our band sits roughly 12% either side of that level.
We lock a binary: the USD/JPY spot rate at the final close of calendar 2026 sits inside a 140.00 to 180.00 band. Confidence 92%. We are explicitly not predicting the direction — only that the pair stays inside the band.
USD/JPY sat at 159.46 on 13 August 2026, and moved about 8% across the preceding twelve months. Our band allows roughly 12% of movement in either direction over a four-and-a-half-month horizon, which is a wide tolerance against that realised pace. Confidence 92%, not higher, because the yen is the currency most exposed to a Bank of Japan policy surprise or an abrupt carry-trade unwind, and either can move the pair several per cent in days. This is a band call and takes no view on whether the yen strengthens or weakens.
RAOSCAFF locks P-151 on 2026-08-13. Scored against the USD/JPY spot rate at the final close of calendar 2026 versus a 140.00–180.00 band. Direction is not predicted.
A Bank of Japan policy surprise or a carry-trade unwind is the disclosed tail — either can move the pair several per cent in days.