BHP's quarterly floor — ≥58Mt, locked at 91%.

91% probability BHP's September-2026 quarter WAIO iron ore production lands at or above 58Mt on a BHP-share basis — roughly 8% below the quarterly pace implied by its own FY2027 guidance of 253–264Mt. Resolves ~21 Oct 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · production-floor threshold Locked · 2026-08-13 · before the Q1 operational review Resolves · ~2026-10-21 · BHP Q1 FY2027 operational review (bhp.com) Scored · binary: Q1 FY2027 WAIO production ≥58Mt BHP-share yes/no

BHP Q1 FY2027 WAIO iron ore · our locked floor

≥ 58 Mt

BHP-share basis · vs a 253–264Mt FY2027 guide

BHP guided FY2027 WAIO iron ore production to 253–264Mt on a BHP-share basis (286–298Mt on a 100% basis), after a record FY2026 of 264.7Mt. That guide implies a quarterly pace of roughly 63–66Mt. Source: BHP operational review for the year ended 30 June 2026 (bhp.com).

— 1 · The Locked Call

BHP Q1 FY2027 WAIO iron ore production lands ≥58Mt — P = 0.91.

We lock a binary: BHP reports Western Australia Iron Ore production of at least 58 million tonnes on a BHP-share basis for the September 2026 quarter, per its quarterly operational review. Confidence 91%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

The floor sits well below the pace implied by BHP's own full-year guidance.

BHP guided FY2027 WAIO production to 253–264Mt on a BHP-share basis after a record 264.7Mt year, implying roughly 63–66Mt a quarter. Our 58Mt floor sits about 8% below the low end of that implied pace. The September quarter also falls outside the Pilbara cyclone season, which is the usual source of quarterly disruption. Confidence 91%, not higher, because an unplanned outage at a major hub, a rail incident or a port constraint can each take several million tonnes out of a single quarter. Scored on the BHP-share figure, not the 100% basis.

Locked on 2026-08-13 — scored against BHP's reported Q1 FY2027 WAIO production.

RAOSCAFF locks P-152 on 2026-08-13, before the September-quarter operational review. Scored against BHP's reported Q1 FY2027 WAIO iron ore production on a BHP-share basis versus a 58Mt floor.

Locked: 2026-08-13 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2026-10-21 — BHP operational review for the September 2026 quarter
Source: BHP quarterly operational review, Western Australia Iron Ore production, BHP-share basis (bhp.com)
Scored by: Binary: YES if reported Q1 FY2027 WAIO iron ore production is ≥58Mt on a BHP-SHARE basis; NO otherwise. BHP-share, not the 100% basis, and WAIO specifically — not BHP total iron ore including Samarco.

An unplanned hub outage, a rail incident or a port constraint is the disclosed tail — each can remove several Mt from a quarter.