92% probability Prologis reports Q3 2026 core FFO of at least $1.45 per diluted share — roughly 11% below the $1.63 posted in Q2, with full-year guidance raised to $6.22–$6.30. Resolves ~15 Oct 2026.
Prologis reported Q2 2026 core FFO of $1.63 per diluted share, up from $1.46 a year earlier, on revenue of $2.43bn and record leasing of over 67 million square feet, and raised full-year core FFO guidance to $6.22–$6.30. Our floor sits about 11% below the Q2 print. Source: Prologis Q2 2026 results (prologis.com).
We lock a binary: Prologis reports third-quarter 2026 core funds from operations of at least $1.45 per diluted share, per the company's results release. Confidence 92%.
A logistics REIT's quarter is underwritten by signed leases rather than by transactions, and Prologis ended Q2 with owned-and-managed occupancy of 95.5% after a record leasing quarter. It posted $1.63 of core FFO in Q2 and lifted full-year guidance to $6.22–$6.30, which implies a second-half pace comfortably above our floor. Confidence 92%, not higher, because core FFO carries lumpy components — promote income and development gains — that can swing a single quarter. Scored on core FFO per diluted share, not net earnings per share, which is a different and lower figure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-154 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against Prologis's reported third-quarter 2026 core FFO per diluted share versus a $1.45 floor.
Core FFO carries lumpy promote income and development gains — a quiet quarter on both is the disclosed tail.