92% probability Canada's headline CPI rises at or below 3.5% in the twelve months to September 2026 — a ceiling 0.7pt above the 2.8% June print, against core measures running near 1.8–1.9%. Resolves ~20 Oct 2026.
Statistics Canada reported annual inflation easing to 2.8% in June 2026 from 3.2% in May, with CPI-trim at 1.8% and CPI-median at 1.9%, and headline excluding gasoline at 2.2%. Our ceiling sits 0.7pt above that print. Source: Statistics Canada, The Daily, Consumer Price Index June 2026.
We lock a binary: Canada's headline Consumer Price Index for September 2026 rises at or below 3.5% year-on-year, per Statistics Canada. Confidence 92%.
Canadian headline inflation eased to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, and the Bank of Canada's preferred core measures — CPI-trim at 1.8% and CPI-median at 1.9% — were running below the 2% target midpoint. Our ceiling allows 0.7pt of re-acceleration over a three-month horizon against a decelerating trend. Confidence 92%, not higher, because gasoline is the volatile swing component (headline excluding gasoline was a full 0.6pt lower at 2.2%) and an energy spike is the disclosed tail. Scored on the first-published headline all-items CPI 12-month rate.
RAOSCAFF locks P-155 on 2026-08-13, before the September release. Scored against Canada's September 2026 headline CPI annual rate versus a 3.5% ceiling.
Gasoline is the volatile component — headline ex-gasoline ran 0.6pt lower — so an energy spike is the disclosed tail.