91% probability Australia's September-quarter 2026 headline CPI rises at or below 4.5% year-on-year — a ceiling 0.7pt above the 3.8% June-quarter print, against a trend that has fallen from 4.6% in the March quarter. Resolves ~28 Oct 2026.
The ABS reported headline CPI rising 3.8% in the twelve months to the June 2026 quarter, down from 4.6% in the year to the March quarter, with trimmed-mean inflation steady at 3.6% and a 0.6% quarterly movement. Our ceiling sits 0.7pt above that print. Source: ABS, Consumer Price Index Australia, released 29 July 2026.
We lock a binary: Australia's quarterly headline Consumer Price Index for the September 2026 quarter rises at or below 4.5% year-on-year, per the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Confidence 91%.
Australian headline inflation fell from 4.6% in the year to the March 2026 quarter to 3.8% in the year to June, while trimmed-mean inflation held steady at 3.6% and the quarterly movement was a contained 0.6%. Our ceiling allows 0.7pt of re-acceleration against a clearly decelerating series. Confidence 91%, not higher, because Australian quarterly CPI is sensitive to administered price resets — electricity rebates, tobacco excise and rents — which can land in a single quarter. Scored on the QUARTERLY CPI release, not the ABS monthly CPI indicator, which is a separate series.
RAOSCAFF locks P-156 on 2026-08-13, before the September-quarter release. Scored against Australia's September-quarter 2026 headline CPI annual rate versus a 4.5% ceiling.
Administered price resets — electricity rebates, tobacco excise, rents — can land in a single quarter and are the disclosed tail.