92% probability the Dutch TTF front-month contract settles at or below €100 per MWh on 1 December 2026 — a ceiling roughly 70–85% above the mid-to-high €50s level quoted in mid-August 2026. Early winter is the disclosed risk. Resolves 1 Dec 2026.
Dutch TTF front-month quotes in mid-August 2026 sat in the mid-to-high €50s per MWh (sources quoted €54.10 and €59.40 for differing contract months on 13 August). We deliberately reference the range rather than a single print. Bank of America had expected TTF to average about €50/MWh across 2026. Our ceiling sits far above the whole range.
We lock a binary: the ICE Dutch TTF front-month natural gas contract settles at or below €100.00 per MWh on 1 December 2026. Confidence 92%.
European gas traded in the mid-to-high €50s per MWh in mid-August 2026 — we quote a range rather than a point because sources differed across contract months — and our €100 ceiling sits roughly 70 to 85% above that whole band. That margin is deliberately wide enough that the pricing ambiguity cannot decide the outcome. Confidence 92%, not higher, because 1 December falls at the start of the European heating season, and TTF is the benchmark with the most violent recent history: a cold snap combined with an LNG supply disruption is precisely the event that has doubled this contract before. Scored on the exchange settlement, not a spot index.
RAOSCAFF locks P-157 on 2026-08-13. Scored against the ICE Dutch TTF front-month natural gas settlement on 1 December 2026 versus a €100/MWh ceiling.
1 December opens the European heating season — a cold snap plus an LNG supply disruption is the disclosed tail, and has doubled this contract before.