91% probability Nucor's Q3 2026 steel mill shipments land at or above 6.5 million tons — roughly 8% below the record 7.1 million tons shipped in Q2, against company guidance for stable volumes and higher earnings. Resolves ~22 Oct 2026.
Nucor shipped a record 7.1 million tons from its steel mills in Q2 2026, delivering net earnings of $1.2bn or $5.04 per share, and guided to higher third-quarter earnings on expanding metal margins with stable volumes. Full-year shipment growth was guided to the high end of a 5–10% range. Source: Nucor Q2 2026 results, July 2026.
We lock a binary: Nucor reports third-quarter 2026 steel mill shipments of at least 6.5 million tons, per the company's results release. Confidence 91%.
Nucor shipped a record 7.1 million tons in Q2 and guided its steel mills to stable volumes with expanding metal margins in Q3, while lifting full-year shipment growth toward the high end of its 5–10% range. Our floor sits about 8% below that record. Confidence 91%, not higher, because steel volumes are cyclical and an unplanned mill outage or a sharp demand pause can remove several hundred thousand tons from a quarter. Scored on STEEL MILL shipments, not total shipments including the steel products or raw materials segments.
RAOSCAFF locks P-160 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against Nucor's reported third-quarter 2026 steel mill shipments versus a 6.5 million ton floor.
An unplanned mill outage or a sharp demand pause is the disclosed tail.