93% probability Union Pacific's Q3 2026 reported operating ratio lands at or below 65% — a ceiling more than five points above the 59.7% posted in Q2, on one of the slowest-moving metrics in transport. Resolves ~22 Oct 2026.
Union Pacific reported a Q2 2026 operating ratio of 59.7% (59.2% adjusted) on operating revenue of $6.9bn, up 12%, with volume up 2% and core pricing adding 175 basis points to freight revenue. Our ceiling sits more than five points above that print. Source: Union Pacific Q2 2026 results, 23 July 2026.
We lock a binary: Union Pacific reports a third-quarter 2026 reported operating ratio at or below 65.0%, per the company's results release. Confidence 93%.
A railroad's operating ratio — operating expenses as a share of revenue — moves in tenths of a point between quarters because both the cost base and the pricing book are structural. Union Pacific posted 59.7% in Q2 with volume growing and core pricing adding 175 basis points, and our 65% ceiling allows more than five points of deterioration. Confidence 93%, not higher, because a severe weather event, a derailment or a fuel-price spike can each add a point or more in a single quarter. Scored on the REPORTED operating ratio, not the adjusted figure, which runs lower.
RAOSCAFF locks P-161 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against Union Pacific's reported third-quarter 2026 operating ratio versus a 65% ceiling.
A severe weather event, a derailment or a fuel-price spike is the disclosed tail — each can add a point or more.