93% probability Mexico's headline annual inflation prints at or below 4.5% in September 2026 — a ceiling 1.4pt above the 3.12% July reading, which was the lowest since May 2020 after four consecutive monthly declines. Resolves ~8 Oct 2026.
INEGI reported Mexico's annual inflation falling to 3.12% in July 2026, its lowest since May 2020, with the INPC at 145.169 points and core inflation decelerating to 3.95%. Headline had declined for four consecutive months and sits inside Banxico's target range. Our ceiling sits 1.4pt above that print.
We lock a binary: Mexico's headline annual inflation rate for September 2026 prints at or below 4.5%, per INEGI. Confidence 93%.
Mexican headline inflation reached 3.12% in July 2026, the lowest reading since May 2020, after four consecutive monthly declines, and sits comfortably inside Banxico's target range. Our ceiling allows 1.4 points of re-acceleration over two months against a decelerating series. Confidence 93%, not higher, because core inflation at 3.95% still runs above headline on persistent service-sector pressure, and the recent decline leaned on fuel-price stabilisation measures and food costs that could unwind. Scored on the first-published headline annual INPC rate.
RAOSCAFF locks P-162 on 2026-08-13, before the September release. Scored against Mexico's September 2026 headline annual inflation rate versus a 4.5% ceiling.
Core at 3.95% runs above headline on service-sector pressure, and the fuel and food measures behind the decline could unwind.