92% probability Maersk's Q3 2026 underlying EBITDA lands at or above US$2.2 billion — roughly 27% below the $3.0bn posted in Q2, against full-year guidance raised to $10.5–$12.5bn on strong container demand. Resolves ~5 Nov 2026.
Maersk reported Q2 2026 EBITDA of US$3.0bn against a $2.12bn analyst median, on revenue of $15.8bn up 20%, with loaded volumes up 4.1% and average loaded freight rates up 22%. It raised full-year underlying EBITDA guidance to $10.5–$12.5bn from $8–$10bn. Source: Maersk Q2 2026 results, 13 August 2026.
We lock a binary: A.P. Moller-Maersk reports third-quarter 2026 underlying EBITDA of at least US$2.2 billion, per its interim report. Confidence 92%.
Maersk delivered $3.0bn of EBITDA in Q2, well ahead of the $2.12bn analyst median, and lifted full-year underlying EBITDA guidance to $10.5–$12.5bn — a range whose lower bound alone implies a second half comparable to the first. Our floor sits about 27% below the Q2 print. Confidence 92%, not higher, because container shipping is the most rate-volatile sector we lock: the quarter's strength leaned on elevated freight rates supported by Middle East routing disruption, and a normalisation there can compress spot rates within weeks. Scored on UNDERLYING EBITDA, the company's own guided measure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-164 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against A.P. Moller-Maersk's reported third-quarter 2026 underlying EBITDA versus a US$2.2 billion floor.
Freight-rate normalisation as Middle East routing disruption eases is the disclosed tail — spot rates can compress within weeks.