93% probability Philip Morris International's Q3 2026 adjusted diluted EPS lands at or above $2.00 — roughly 9% below the $2.20 delivered in Q2, against full-year guidance of $8.26–$8.41. Resolves ~20 Oct 2026.
Philip Morris International reported Q2 2026 adjusted diluted EPS of $2.20, up 15.2%, on net revenues of $11.2bn up 10.4% (7.6% organic), with smoke-free up 11.7% and combustibles up 9.5%. Full-year adjusted diluted EPS is guided to $8.26–$8.41. Source: PMI Q2 2026 results, July 2026.
We lock a binary: Philip Morris International reports third-quarter 2026 adjusted diluted earnings per share of at least $2.00, per the company's results release. Confidence 93%.
PMI delivered $2.20 of adjusted EPS in Q2 with both smoke-free and combustible revenue growing, and guided the full year to $8.26–$8.41 — a range that requires quarterly earnings well above our floor. Tobacco demand is famously inelastic, which makes the revenue line unusually stable quarter to quarter. Our floor sits about 9% below the Q2 print. Confidence 93%, not higher, because PMI reports in dollars while earning largely offshore, so an adverse currency swing is the disclosed tail. Scored on ADJUSTED diluted EPS, not reported GAAP EPS.
RAOSCAFF locks P-165 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against Philip Morris International's reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted diluted EPS versus a $2.00 floor.
PMI reports in dollars while earning largely offshore — an adverse currency swing is the disclosed tail.