91% probability CME Group's Q3 2026 average daily volume lands at or above 24 million contracts — roughly 19% below the 29.8 million of Q2, one of its highest quarters on record. Resolves ~21 Oct 2026.
CME Group reported Q2 2026 average daily volume of 29.8 million contracts, among its highest quarters on record, including a June record of 30.6 million contracts up 19% year-on-year. Equity index ADV rose 13% to 8.6 million while interest-rate ADV was 14.5 million. Source: CME Group Q2 2026 results, 22 July 2026.
We lock a binary: CME Group reports third-quarter 2026 average daily volume of at least 24 million contracts, per the company's results release. Confidence 91%.
Exchange volume is driven by hedging and risk-transfer needs across rates, equities and commodities — activity that persists in both calm and volatile markets, and rises sharply in the latter. CME averaged 29.8 million contracts a day in Q2 with a record June, and our floor sits about 19% below that. Confidence 91%, not higher, because the third quarter spans the seasonally quietest weeks of the year and a genuinely becalmed rates market would be the way this slips. Scored on total average daily volume across all asset classes, not any single product line.
RAOSCAFF locks P-166 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against CME Group's reported third-quarter 2026 total average daily volume versus a 24 million contract floor.
Q3 spans the seasonally quietest weeks — a becalmed rates market is the disclosed tail.