91% probability Marriott's Q3 2026 worldwide RevPAR grows at least 1.0% year-on-year — against 3.4% in Q2 and full-year guidance raised to 3.0–3.5%, with a 43% Middle East decline the named drag. Resolves ~3 Nov 2026.
Marriott reported Q2 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth of 3.4% (US & Canada +5.0%, international -0.5%, EMEA down over 5% on a 43% Middle East decline), adjusted diluted EPS of $3.19 and adjusted EBITDA of $1,592m, and raised full-year RevPAR guidance to 3.0–3.5%. Source: Marriott International Q2 2026 results, August 2026.
We lock a binary: Marriott International reports third-quarter 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth of at least 1.0% year-on-year, per the company's results release. Confidence 91%.
Marriott grew worldwide RevPAR 3.4% in Q2 and raised its full-year range to 3.0–3.5% — arithmetic that requires the remaining quarters to run near that pace, well above our 1.0% floor. Room rates also reprice slowly across a franchised estate, so the metric moves gradually. Confidence 91%, not higher, because the regional split is genuinely uneven: international RevPAR was already slightly negative in Q2 and EMEA fell more than 5% on a 43% Middle East decline, so a widening of that conflict is the disclosed tail. Scored on WORLDWIDE RevPAR growth, not the US & Canada figure, which runs higher.
RAOSCAFF locks P-169 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against Marriott International's reported third-quarter 2026 worldwide RevPAR growth versus a +1.0% floor.
International RevPAR was already slightly negative and EMEA fell over 5% on a 43% Middle East decline — a widening conflict is the disclosed tail.