The engine-maker's floor — ≥$1.75, locked at 93%.

93% probability GE Aerospace's Q3 2026 adjusted EPS lands at or above $1.75 — roughly 13% below the $2.02 delivered in Q2, against full-year guidance raised to $7.65–$7.85 on aftermarket demand. Resolves ~22 Oct 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · earnings-floor threshold Locked · 2026-08-13 · before the Q3 results Resolves · ~2026-10-22 · GE Aerospace Q3 2026 results (geaerospace.com) Scored · binary: Q3 2026 adjusted EPS ≥$1.75 yes/no

GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS · our locked floor

≥ $1.75

adjusted EPS · vs $2.02 reported in Q2 2026

GE Aerospace reported Q2 2026 adjusted EPS of $2.02, up 22% and ahead of a $1.86 consensus, on adjusted revenue of $12.63bn up 24%, and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $7.65–$7.85 from $7.10–$7.40 alongside higher operating-profit and free-cash-flow guidance. Source: GE Aerospace Q2 2026 results, July 2026.

— 1 · The Locked Call

GE Aerospace Q3 2026 adjusted EPS lands ≥$1.75 — P = 0.93.

We lock a binary: GE Aerospace reports third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of at least $1.75, per the company's results release. Confidence 93%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

Engine aftermarket revenue is annuity-like, and guidance was raised across every metric.

GE Aerospace earns the bulk of its profit servicing an installed base of engines that must be maintained on regulated intervals regardless of the cycle — closer to an annuity than to a capital-goods order book. The company beat consensus by 8.6% in Q2 and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $7.65–$7.85, a range requiring quarterly earnings well above our floor. Confidence 93%, not higher, because spare-parts shipments and shop-visit timing can shift between quarters, and supply-chain constraints on new engine deliveries remain live. Scored on ADJUSTED EPS, not GAAP.

Locked on 2026-08-13 — scored against GE Aerospace's reported Q3 2026 adjusted EPS.

RAOSCAFF locks P-170 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against GE Aerospace's reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS versus a $1.75 floor.

Locked: 2026-08-13 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2026-10-22 — GE Aerospace Q3 2026 results
Source: GE Aerospace Q3 2026 earnings release, adjusted EPS (geaerospace.com; SEC 8-K)
Scored by: Binary: YES if reported Q3 2026 ADJUSTED EPS is ≥$1.75; NO otherwise. Adjusted EPS as reported — not GAAP continuing-operations EPS.

Shop-visit timing and supply-chain constraints on new engine deliveries are the disclosed tails.