93% probability WM's Q3 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA lands at or above $1.95 billion — roughly 6% below the $2.067bn of Q2, against full-year guidance maintained at $8.15–$8.25bn. Resolves ~27 Oct 2026.
WM reported Q2 2026 revenue of $6.684bn and adjusted operating EBITDA of $2.067bn, up 5.5%, with margin expanding 40 basis points to 30.9%, and maintained full-year adjusted operating EBITDA guidance of $8.15–$8.25bn at a 31.0–31.2% margin. Collection and disposal volumes are guided roughly flat in the second half. Source: WM Q2 2026 results, July 2026.
We lock a binary: Waste Management reports third-quarter 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA of at least $1.95 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 93%.
Household and commercial waste volumes barely move with the cycle, and WM's revenue is priced through long-dated contracts carrying built-in escalators, which is why margin expanded 40 basis points in Q2 even as volumes softened. Full-year guidance of $8.15–$8.25bn implies a quarterly pace above $2bn, and our floor sits about 6% below the Q2 print. Confidence 93%, not higher, because recycled-commodity prices are genuinely volatile and flow straight through to this line, and the Healthcare Solutions integration is still in progress. Scored on ADJUSTED OPERATING EBITDA, the company's own guided measure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-171 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against Waste Management's reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted operating EBITDA versus a $1.95 billion floor.
Recycled-commodity price swings flow straight to this line — the disclosed tail.