93% probability India's gross GST collection for October 2026 lands at or above ₹1.90 lakh crore — roughly 10% below the ₹2.11 lakh crore collected in July, with festive-season consumption in the covered period. Resolves ~1 Nov 2026.
India's gross GST collection for July 2026 was ₹2,11,205 crore, up 15.4% year-on-year, with domestic revenue up 10.1% to ₹1.45 lakh crore and import GST up 28.8% to ₹66,511 crore. Net collection after ₹27,147 crore of refunds was ₹1,84,058 crore. Our floor sits about 10% below the gross figure.
We lock a binary: India's gross GST collection reported for October 2026 is at least ₹1.90 lakh crore, per the Ministry of Finance. Confidence 93%.
Gross GST has been running well above ₹2 lakh crore with July at ₹2,11,205 crore, up 15.4%, on both broadening compliance and strong import collections. October additionally captures the Navratri and Diwali festive period, historically the strongest consumption window in the Indian calendar. Our floor sits about 10% below the July level. Confidence 93%, not higher, because monthly GST is genuinely lumpy — it depends on filing timing and on import volumes that swing with commodity prices. Scored on the GROSS figure, not the net-of-refunds number, which runs materially lower.
RAOSCAFF locks P-172 on 2026-08-13, before the October release. Scored against India's reported gross GST collection for October 2026 versus a ₹1.90 lakh crore floor.
Monthly GST is lumpy on filing timing and import volumes — the disclosed tail.