92% probability S&P Global's Q3 2026 adjusted EPS lands at or above $3.80 — roughly 7% below the $4.08 of Q2, against full-year guidance of $17.50–$17.75 and 20% growth in Indices. Resolves ~29 Oct 2026.
S&P Global reported Q2 2026 revenue of $4.15bn, up 11% and ahead of a $4.09bn estimate, with adjusted EPS of $4.08 up 23% year-on-year though below a $4.75 consensus. Ratings revenue grew 17% and Indices 20%. Full-year adjusted EPS is guided to $17.50–$17.75. Source: S&P Global Q2 2026 results, 28 July 2026.
We lock a binary: S&P Global reports third-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings per share of at least $3.80, per the company's results release. Confidence 92%.
Most of S&P Global's revenue outside Ratings is recurring subscription and index-linked income that does not swing with a single quarter, and Indices grew 20% in Q2. The company also expects to repurchase more than $7bn of stock in 2026, which mechanically supports per-share earnings. Our floor sits about 7% below the Q2 print. Confidence 92%, and deliberately not higher, because Q2 adjusted EPS of $4.08 came in well below the $4.75 consensus — this is a company that has already missed once this year, and Ratings revenue depends on debt-issuance volumes that can stall quickly. Scored on ADJUSTED EPS, not GAAP.
RAOSCAFF locks P-173 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against S&P Global's reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted EPS versus a $3.80 floor.
Q2 adjusted EPS missed consensus by a wide margin and Ratings depends on debt-issuance volumes that can stall — the disclosed tail.