91% probability The Trade Desk's Q3 2026 revenue lands at or above $600 million — roughly 8% below its own ~$650m guide, a guide that implied a year-on-year decline and took the shares down 24%. Resolves ~5 Nov 2026.
The Trade Desk reported Q2 2026 revenue of $715m, up 3% but $37.6m short of forecasts, with net income down 29% to $64m, then guided Q3 revenue to about $650m against a consensus near $804m — an implied year-on-year decline that cut the shares 24%. Our floor sits about 8% below the company's own guide. Source: Trade Desk Q2 2026 results, 6 August 2026.
We lock a binary: The Trade Desk reports third-quarter 2026 revenue of at least $600 million, per the company's results release. Confidence 91%.
This is not a growth call. The Trade Desk guided Q3 revenue to roughly $650m against a consensus near $804m — an implied decline that the market punished with a 24% fall. Because the downgrade has already happened, our floor sits about 8% below management's own reduced number rather than ahead of an untested expectation. Confidence 91%, and deliberately not higher, because a company that has just missed and guided down is demonstrably in a deteriorating position, and programmatic ad budgets can be cut inside a quarter. Scored on total reported revenue.
RAOSCAFF locks P-175 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against The Trade Desk's reported third-quarter 2026 revenue versus a $600 million floor.
A company that has just missed and guided down is deteriorating; programmatic ad budgets can be cut inside a quarter.