93% probability Brazil's 12-month IPCA prints at or below 5.5% for October 2026 — a ceiling about 1.1pt above the 4.44% July reading, which had just returned inside the central bank's target band. Resolves ~10 Nov 2026.
IBGE reported the IPCA rising 0.07% in July 2026, slowing from 0.16% in June, taking the 12-month rate to 4.44% from 4.64% and back inside the 1.5–4.5% target band. Year-to-date inflation was 3.44% across the first seven months. Our ceiling sits about 1.1pt above that reading.
We lock a binary: Brazil's 12-month IPCA inflation rate for October 2026 prints at or below 5.5%, per IBGE. Confidence 93%.
Brazilian inflation decelerated to a 0.07% monthly print in July, pulling the 12-month rate down to 4.44% from 4.64% and back inside the 1.5–4.5% band, with food and beverages actually falling 0.67%. Our ceiling allows roughly 1.1 points of re-acceleration over three months against that trend. Confidence 93%, not higher, because Brazilian inflation is unusually exposed to two volatile inputs — residential electricity tariff bands, which drove July's 0.99% housing increase, and the real, which can transmit quickly into tradables. Scored on the first-published 12-month IPCA rate.
RAOSCAFF locks P-176 on 2026-08-13, before the October release. Scored against Brazil's October 2026 12-month IPCA rate versus a 5.5% ceiling.
Electricity tariff bands and the real are the volatile inputs — the disclosed tail.