93% probability MercadoLibre's Q3 2026 net revenues land at or above $9.5 billion — roughly 7% below the $10.17bn of Q2, a quarter that grew 50% and crossed $10bn for the first time. Resolves ~5 Nov 2026.
MercadoLibre reported Q2 2026 net revenues and financial income of $10,169m, up 50% year-on-year and the first quarter above $10bn, on GMV of $21.9bn (up 44%, 36% FX-neutral) and total payment volume of $101.0bn (up 56%). Income from operations was $683m at a 6.7% margin. Source: MercadoLibre Q2 2026 results, August 2026.
We lock a binary: MercadoLibre reports third-quarter 2026 net revenues and financial income of at least $9.5 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 93%.
MercadoLibre grew net revenues 50% to $10.17bn in Q2 with GMV up 44% and payment volume up 56%, and its fintech book — $23bn of assets under management and a credit portfolio above $16bn — compounds alongside the marketplace. Our floor sits about 7% below a quarter the company has already banked, on a business still growing at that pace. Confidence 93%, not higher, because MercadoLibre reports in dollars while earning in Brazilian reais, Argentine pesos and Mexican pesos, so a sharp devaluation in any of them transmits directly to the reported figure. Scored on NET REVENUES AND FINANCIAL INCOME, the company's headline top line.
RAOSCAFF locks P-177 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against MercadoLibre's reported third-quarter 2026 net revenues and financial income versus a $9.5 billion floor.
Dollar reporting on real, peso and Mexican-peso earnings — a sharp devaluation is the disclosed tail.