92% probability Rheinmetall's nine-month 2026 consolidated sales reach at least €8.0 billion — against €5.23bn already booked in H1, which grew 39%, and full-year guidance of €13.7–€14.2bn. Resolves ~6 Nov 2026.
Rheinmetall reported H1 2026 sales of €5,227m, up 39% from €3,749m, with operating margin improving from 12.1% to 15.0%. Full-year guidance was adjusted to €13.7–€14.2bn from €14.0–€14.5bn after the F126 frigate cancellation cost Naval Systems up to €300m, with organic growth guidance unchanged at 28–31%. Source: Rheinmetall H1 2026 report, 6 August 2026.
We lock a binary: Rheinmetall reports nine-month 2026 consolidated sales of at least €8.0 billion, per its nine-month statement. Confidence 92%.
Two thirds of the required figure is already reported: H1 sales were €5.227bn, so the third quarter needs only about €2.8bn to clear our floor, against a full-year guide of €13.7–€14.2bn that implies a materially larger second half. The backlog behind it is roughly €80bn, around six times annual sales. Confidence 92%, not higher, because this guidance has ALREADY been cut once this year — the F126 frigate cancellation removed up to €300m from Naval Systems — and defence revenue recognition depends on government acceptance milestones that can slip a quarter. Scored on consolidated group sales, not the operating result.
RAOSCAFF locks P-178 on 2026-08-13, before the nine-month statement. Scored against Rheinmetall's reported nine-month 2026 consolidated sales versus an €8.0 billion floor.
Guidance has already been cut once this year on the F126 cancellation, and acceptance milestones can slip a quarter.