Zara's half-year floor — ≥€17.0bn, locked at 93%.

93% probability Inditex's first-half fiscal-2026 net sales reach at least €17.0 billion — against €8.7bn already booked in Q1 and early-summer sales running 11.5% higher in constant currency. Resolves ~9 Sep 2026.

Type · Prediction Lock · revenue-floor threshold Locked · 2026-08-13 · before the H1 results Resolves · ~2026-09-09 · Inditex H1 FY2026 results (inditex.com) Scored · binary: H1 FY2026 net sales ≥€17.0bn yes/no

Inditex H1 FY2026 net sales · our locked floor

≥ €17.0bn

net sales · vs €8.7bn booked in Q1 alone

Inditex reported first-quarter fiscal-2026 net sales of €8.7bn, up 5.8% (8.8% in constant currency), with gross profit of €5.4bn up 6.9%, net income of €1.375bn up 5.4% and gross margin at 61.2%. Between 1 May and 1 June, store and online sales rose 11.5% in constant currency. Source: Inditex Q1 FY2026 results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Inditex H1 FY2026 net sales reach ≥€17.0 billion — P = 0.93.

We lock a binary: Inditex reports first-half fiscal-2026 net sales of at least €17.0 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 93%.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

Half of the figure is already reported and the summer traded ahead of it.

Inditex booked €8.7bn in the first quarter, so the second needs about €8.3bn to clear our floor — and the company disclosed that store and online sales in the opening month of Q2 ran 11.5% higher in constant currency, ahead of the 8.8% constant-currency pace of Q1. Confidence 93%, not higher, because Inditex reports in euros while selling globally, and currency translation already cost about three points of growth in Q1 — reported growth was 5.8% against 8.8% constant currency. Scored on reported NET SALES in euros, not the constant-currency growth rate.

Locked on 2026-08-13 — scored against Inditex's reported H1 FY2026 net sales.

RAOSCAFF locks P-179 on 2026-08-13, before the H1 release. Scored against Inditex's reported first-half fiscal-2026 net sales versus a €17.0 billion floor.

Locked: 2026-08-13 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2026-09-09 — Inditex H1 fiscal-2026 results (six months to 31 July 2026)
Source: Industria de Diseño Textil (Inditex) H1 FY2026 results statement, net sales (inditex.com)
Scored by: Binary: YES if reported H1 FY2026 net sales are ≥€17.0bn; NO otherwise. Reported net sales in euros for the six months — not the constant-currency figure and not gross profit.

Currency translation cost about three points of growth in Q1 — a further euro strengthening is the disclosed tail.