93% probability Ryanair's first-half FY2027 traffic reaches at least 110 million passengers — against 61.3 million already flown in Q1 and reaffirmed full-year guidance of 216 million. We lock traffic, which management reaffirmed, not profit, which it withdrew. Resolves ~3 Nov 2026.
Ryanair carried 61.3 million passengers in Q1 FY2027, up 6%, and reaffirmed full-year traffic guidance of 216 million (+4%) with first-half growth of 6%. Profit after tax fell 34% to €538m on unhedged fuel and 6% lower fares, and the company DECLINED to give full-year profit guidance, citing zero second-half visibility. Source: Ryanair Q1 FY2027 results, July 2026.
We lock a binary: Ryanair carries at least 110 million passengers across the first half of fiscal 2027, per its results and monthly traffic statistics. Confidence 93%.
Ryanair reaffirmed FY2027 traffic guidance of 216 million passengers with first-half growth of 6%, while explicitly refusing to guide full-year profit because it has no second-half fare visibility. Locking a number the company itself declines to forecast would be a guess dressed as a forecast, so we lock traffic instead. Of the required total, 61.3 million is already flown, and the July–September quarter is the peak European summer. Confidence 93%, not higher, because traffic depends on delivered aircraft and on air-traffic-control disruption, which has cancelled meaningful volumes in past European summers. Scored on PASSENGERS CARRIED, not load factor and not revenue.
RAOSCAFF locks P-180 on 2026-08-13, before the H1 release. Scored against Ryanair's reported first-half fiscal-2027 passenger traffic versus a 110 million floor.
Aircraft delivery timing and European air-traffic-control disruption are the disclosed tails.