91% probability Deere's full-year fiscal 2026 net income reaches at least $4.2 billion — roughly 7% below the low end of its own raised $4.5–$5.0bn guidance, against a persistently weak large-agriculture market. Resolves ~25 Nov 2026.
Deere & Company raised full-year fiscal 2026 net income guidance to a range of $4.5–$5.0bn, up from an earlier $4.00–$4.75bn, while cautioning that persistent weakness in large agriculture and ongoing margin pressure could weigh on performance. Our floor sits about 7% below the low end of that raised range.
We lock a binary: Deere & Company reports full-year fiscal 2026 net income attributable to the company of at least $4.2 billion, per its fourth-quarter results. Confidence 91%.
Deere raised full-year net income guidance to $4.5–$5.0bn from $4.00–$4.75bn, and by the time this resolves nearly the entire fiscal year is complete — most of the figure is already earned rather than forecast. Our floor sits about 7% below the low end of the raised range. Confidence 91%, and deliberately not higher, because management itself flagged persistent weakness in large agriculture and ongoing margin pressure, and Deere carries a financial-services book whose credit provisions can move the consolidated number late in the year. Scored on NET INCOME ATTRIBUTABLE TO DEERE, not on equipment-operations profit alone.
RAOSCAFF locks P-181 on 2026-08-13, before the FY2026 results. Scored against Deere & Company's reported full-year fiscal 2026 net income versus a $4.2 billion floor.
Management flagged persistent large-agriculture weakness; financial-services credit provisions can move the number late — the disclosed tails.