92% probability the uranium spot indicator sits at or below US$130 per pound of U3O8 on 1 December 2026 — a ceiling roughly 50% above the $86.48 level of early August, in a market that has been notably stable. Resolves 1 Dec 2026.
The uranium spot price was US$86.48 per pound of U3O8 on 8 August 2026, having averaged US$85.62 in June and traded at US$85.25 on 30 June — a notably stable band around $85–86 through mid-2026. Our ceiling sits roughly 50% above that level.
We lock a binary: the published uranium spot price indicator sits at or below US$130.00 per pound of U3O8 on 1 December 2026. Confidence 92%.
Uranium has traded in a tight $85–86 band through mid-2026, and our ceiling permits roughly a 50% rally before the call fails. Confidence 92%, and deliberately not higher, because uranium is a thin, illiquid spot market where a small number of utility contracts or fund purchases can move price sharply — it rose above $100 within months during the 2024 squeeze. A supply disruption at a major Kazakh or Canadian operation is the specific event that would do it. Scored on the published weekly spot indicator, not a long-term contract price, which is a separate and typically higher series.
RAOSCAFF locks P-182 on 2026-08-13. Scored against the published uranium spot price indicator on 1 December 2026 versus a US$130 per pound ceiling.
A thin, illiquid market: a Kazakh or Canadian supply disruption is the disclosed tail, and uranium cleared $100 within months in the 2024 squeeze.