93% probability Türkiye's annual CPI prints at or below 40% for October 2026 — a ceiling roughly 8 points above the 31.75% July reading, against a slow but consistent disinflation from far higher levels. Resolves ~3 Nov 2026.
TÜİK reported Türkiye's annual CPI easing to 31.75% in July 2026 from 32.11% in June, with a monthly increase of 1.78% and a twelve-month average of 31.90%. Our ceiling sits roughly 8 points above that reading. Source: TÜİK, released 3 August 2026.
We lock a binary: Türkiye's annual consumer price inflation rate for October 2026 prints at or below 40%, per TÜİK. Confidence 93%.
Turkish annual inflation eased to 31.75% in July from 32.11% in June, continuing a grinding disinflation from far higher levels, with monthly prints running near 1.8%. Reaching 40% within three months would require monthly inflation to roughly double and sustain. Our ceiling allows about eight points of reversal. Confidence 93%, and not higher, because Türkiye is the most policy-sensitive inflation series we lock: a lira slide or an abrupt shift in monetary stance has repeatedly reset this number, and administered price adjustments land in lumps. Scored on the official TÜİK headline annual CPI — we note that independent estimates of Turkish inflation run materially higher, and the official series is the published criterion.
RAOSCAFF locks P-183 on 2026-08-13, before the October release. Scored against Türkiye's official October 2026 annual CPI rate versus a 40% ceiling.
A lira slide or an abrupt monetary-stance shift has repeatedly reset this series — the disclosed tail.