93% probability Deutsche Telekom's Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDAaL lands at or above €11.2 billion — roughly 5% below the €11.8bn of Q2, against full-year guidance raised to about €47.5bn. Resolves ~12 Nov 2026.
Deutsche Telekom reported Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDAaL of €11.8bn, ahead of an €11.7bn consensus and up from €11.0bn a year earlier, with organic service revenue up 3.9% and organic EBITDA up 7.4% across the first half. Full-year adjusted EBITDAaL guidance was raised to around €47.5bn and free-cash-flow guidance to around €20bn. Source: Deutsche Telekom Q2 2026 results, August 2026.
We lock a binary: Deutsche Telekom reports third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA after leases of at least €11.2 billion, per its quarterly report. Confidence 93%.
A telecom group's quarterly EBITDA is built from a contracted subscriber base that turns over slowly, which is why Deutsche Telekom grew organic EBITDA 7.4% in the first half with service revenue up 3.9%. It raised full-year adjusted EBITDAaL guidance to around €47.5bn — a figure implying a quarterly pace near €11.9bn — and lifted free-cash-flow guidance to about €20bn. Our floor sits about 5% below the Q2 print. Confidence 93%, not higher, because the majority of group EBITDA comes from T-Mobile US and is translated into euros, so a sharp dollar move transmits directly. Scored on ADJUSTED EBITDA AFTER LEASES, the company's guided measure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-185 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against Deutsche Telekom's reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA after leases versus an €11.2 billion floor.
Most group EBITDA comes from T-Mobile US and is translated into euros — a sharp dollar move is the disclosed tail.