88% probability Vestas keeps its full-year 2026 EBIT margin guidance floor at or above 7% at Q3 — the low end of a range it raised from 6–8% after delivering a 9.4% margin quarter. Resolves ~11 Nov 2026.
Vestas raised its full-year 2026 EBIT margin before special items guidance to 7–9% from 6–8%, holding revenue guidance at €20–22bn, after Q2 revenue of €4,723m rose 26.1% and EBIT before special items reached €446m for a 9.4% margin against 1.5% a year earlier. Order intake rose 67% to 3,349 MW. Source: Vestas Q2 2026 interim report.
We lock a binary: Vestas's full-year 2026 EBIT margin before special items guidance floor is at or above 7% as stated at its third-quarter results. Confidence 88%.
Vestas lifted the bottom of its margin range from 6% to 7% after delivering 9.4% in Q2, a swing from 1.5% a year earlier, and simultaneously announced a €400m buyback — actions a management team does not take before cutting guidance. Order intake up 67% supports the backlog behind it. Confidence 88%, and deliberately lower than most locks in this series, because wind turbine manufacturing has a long history of project-cost write-downs and warranty provisions landing without warning, and a single troubled offshore project can reset the margin line. Scored on the GUIDANCE RANGE stated at Q3, not on the quarter's realised margin.
RAOSCAFF locks P-186 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against the low end of Vestas's full-year 2026 EBIT margin before special items guidance as stated at its third-quarter results.
Wind manufacturing carries project write-downs and warranty provisions that land without warning — the disclosed tail.