92% probability First Solar's Q3 2026 module sales reach at least 3.5GW — roughly 10% below the low end of its own 3.9–4.5GW guide, against a contracted backlog of 45.1GW. Resolves ~27 Oct 2026.
First Solar guided Q3 2026 module sales to 3.9–4.5GW, including 3.2–3.7GW from US manufacturing, and reaffirmed full-year guidance of 17.0–18.2GW of module volumes on net sales of $4.9–$5.2bn and adjusted EBITDA of $2.6–$2.8bn. Contracted backlog stood at 45.1GW at 30 June. Q2 net sales were $1.06bn. Source: First Solar Q2 2026 results, 30 July 2026.
We lock a binary: First Solar reports third-quarter 2026 module sales of at least 3.5 gigawatts, per the company's results release. Confidence 92%.
First Solar sells into a contracted backlog of 45.1GW — roughly two and a half years of production already under agreement — which makes quarterly shipment volume far more predictable than price or revenue. The company guided Q3 to 3.9–4.5GW and reaffirmed its full-year range; our floor sits about 10% below that guide's low end. Confidence 92%, not higher, because Q2 revenue fell 4% specifically on customer contract terminations, so this backlog has demonstrably converted less than fully, and module shipment timing can slip across a quarter boundary. Scored on MODULE SALES IN GIGAWATTS, not net sales in dollars.
RAOSCAFF locks P-188 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against First Solar's reported third-quarter 2026 module sales volume versus a 3.5GW floor.
Q2 revenue fell on customer contract terminations — backlog conversion is the disclosed tail.