93% probability Tesco's first-half 2026/27 group sales reach at least £32.5 billion — against £16.83bn booked in Q1 alone, with group like-for-like sales up 1.0% and UK food up 2.6%. Resolves ~8 Oct 2026.
Tesco reported Q1 2026/27 group sales of £16,826m with like-for-like sales up 1.0%, driven by a 1.8% rise across the UK and Republic of Ireland, UK food sales up 2.6% and Finest range growth of 9%. Full-year adjusted operating profit guidance was reaffirmed at £3.0–£3.3bn. Source: Tesco Q1 2026/27 trading statement.
We lock a binary: Tesco reports first-half 2026/27 group sales of at least £32.5 billion, per its interim results. Confidence 93%.
Tesco booked £16.83bn in the first quarter, so the second needs about £15.7bn to clear our floor — less than the quarter already delivered. Food retail is the most defensive category in consumer spending: households do not stop buying groceries, and Tesco's like-for-like sales were positive with UK food up 2.6%. Confidence 93%, not higher, because Tesco's own full-year profit guidance range is unusually wide at £3.0–£3.3bn and explicitly tied to Middle East uncertainty, which signals management sees real macro risk. Scored on GROUP SALES, not UK-only and not revenue excluding fuel.
RAOSCAFF locks P-189 on 2026-08-13, before the interim results. Scored against Tesco's reported first-half 2026/27 group sales versus a £32.5 billion floor.
Tesco's own profit guidance range is unusually wide and explicitly tied to Middle East uncertainty — the disclosed tail.