92% probability Newmont's Q3 2026 attributable gold production reaches at least 1.20 million ounces — roughly 8% below the 1.3 million ounces of Q2, against reaffirmed full-year guidance of 5.26–5.3 million ounces. Resolves ~29 Oct 2026.
Newmont produced 1.3 million ounces of gold in Q2 2026 alongside 17,000 tons of copper and 7 million ounces of silver, generating record second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2bn, and reaffirmed full-year guidance of 5.26–5.3 million attributable gold ounces at all-in sustaining costs of $1,680/oz. Q2 AISC came in at $1,621/oz. Source: Newmont Q2 2026 results.
We lock a binary: Newmont reports third-quarter 2026 attributable gold production of at least 1.20 million ounces, per the company's results release. Confidence 92%.
Gold production runs off mine plans and mill throughput fixed well in advance, which makes quarterly ounces far steadier than the gold price. Newmont produced 1.3 million ounces in Q2, reaffirmed full-year guidance of 5.26–5.3 million ounces — implying a quarterly pace above 1.3 million — and delivered costs below its own guidance. Our floor sits about 8% below the Q2 figure. Confidence 92%, not higher, because Newmont operates a large portfolio of open-pit and underground mines across several jurisdictions, and a single mill outage, grade miss or geotechnical event can remove a hundred thousand ounces from one quarter. Scored on ATTRIBUTABLE gold production, not total or consolidated production including partner shares.
RAOSCAFF locks P-192 on 2026-08-13, before the Q3 release. Scored against Newmont's reported third-quarter 2026 attributable gold production versus a 1.20 million ounce floor.
A mill outage, grade miss or geotechnical event at one operation can remove a hundred thousand ounces from a quarter.