91% probability the Japan 10-year government bond yield closes calendar 2026 at or below 4.00% — a ceiling about 114 basis points above the 2.86% level of mid-August, in a market that has already climbed 130bp in twelve months. Resolves 31 Dec 2026.
The Japan 10-year government bond yield stood at 2.86% on 13 August 2026, with an early-August auction clearing at 2.840% against a prior 2.729%. The yield had risen about 15 basis points over the preceding month and roughly 130 basis points over twelve months, on expectations of a more aggressive Bank of Japan tightening cycle.
We lock a binary: the Japanese 10-year government bond yield at the final close of calendar 2026 is at or below 4.00%. Confidence 91%.
The 10-year JGB sat at 2.86% in mid-August. Reaching 4.00% by year-end means adding 114 basis points in four and a half months — close to the full 130 basis points the yield took twelve months to travel, compressed into a third of the time. Confidence 91%, and this is the lowest-confidence macro ceiling in the tranche for a reason we will state plainly: this yield is in a sustained uptrend, not a range. It rose 15 basis points in the last month alone on expectations of more aggressive Bank of Japan tightening, and Japanese long rates have repriced abruptly before when the Bank has shifted its framework. We are locking against a trend, not with it. Scored on the benchmark 10-year JGB yield at the final trading close of 2026.
RAOSCAFF locks P-193 on 2026-08-13. Scored against the Japanese 10-year government bond benchmark yield at the final trading close of calendar 2026 versus a 4.00% ceiling.
This yield is in a sustained uptrend, not a range — it rose ~130bp in twelve months and Japanese long rates have repriced abruptly on BoJ framework shifts.