93% probability Indonesia's annual CPI prints at or below 4.0% for October 2026 — a ceiling about 1.1pt above the 2.88% July reading, with headline inflation sitting comfortably inside Bank Indonesia's 1.5–3.5% corridor. Resolves ~2 Nov 2026.
BPS-Statistics Indonesia reported annual inflation of 2.88% in July 2026, down from 3.34% in June, with headline prices actually falling 0.14% month-on-month on softer food and gold prices. Core inflation was 2.76% and year-to-date inflation 1.65%, keeping headline comfortably inside Bank Indonesia's 1.5–3.5% target corridor.
We lock a binary: Indonesia's annual consumer price inflation rate for October 2026 prints at or below 4.0%, per BPS-Statistics Indonesia. Confidence 93%.
Indonesian headline inflation eased to 2.88% in July from 3.34% in June, with prices actually falling 0.14% on the month and core inflation lower still at 2.76%. Year-to-date inflation of just 1.65% through seven months leaves little accumulated pressure. Our ceiling sits about 1.1 points above the July print and half a point above the top of Bank Indonesia's corridor. Confidence 93%, not higher, because Indonesian CPI is sensitive to administered fuel prices and to rice, and the rupiah transmits imported costs quickly when it weakens. Scored on the first-published headline annual rate.
RAOSCAFF locks P-194 on 2026-08-13, before the October release. Scored against Indonesia's October 2026 headline annual CPI rate versus a 4.0% ceiling.
Administered fuel prices, rice, and rupiah pass-through are the disclosed tails.