93% probability Japan's national core CPI excluding fresh food rises at or below 3.0% in October 2026 — a ceiling 1.2 points above the 1.8% July print, which was still running below the Bank of Japan's 2% target despite three straight monthly increases. Resolves ~20 Nov 2026.
Japan's Statistics Bureau reported July 2026 core CPI excluding fresh food at 1.8%, up from 1.6%, with headline CPI at 2.0% and the core-core measure excluding fresh food and energy at 1.9%. It was a third straight month of rising inflation as firms passed through energy and raw-material costs, but core remained BELOW the Bank of Japan's 2% target. Our ceiling sits 1.2pt above that print.
We lock a binary: Japan's national core CPI excluding fresh food for October 2026 rises at or below 3.0% year-on-year, per the Statistics Bureau of Japan. Confidence 93%.
Japanese core inflation was 1.8% in July — below the Bank of Japan's 2% target — and reaching 3.0% within three months would require a sharp acceleration on top of an already-rising series. Confidence 93%, not higher, because this IS rising: July was the third consecutive monthly increase as firms passed through energy and raw-material costs, and the yen's weakness continues to import price pressure. Note that the same release carried three different figures — headline at 2.0%, core excluding fresh food at 1.8%, and core-core excluding fresh food and energy at 1.9%. We lock the middle one, the Bank of Japan's own reference measure, and name it here so the scoring cannot drift to a sibling.
RAOSCAFF locks P-195 on 2026-08-21, before the October release. Scored against Japan's national core CPI excluding fresh food for October 2026 versus a 3.0% ceiling.
This series is rising — July was a third consecutive monthly increase, and yen weakness keeps importing price pressure. The disclosed tail.