94% probability Switzerland's annual CPI prints at or below 1.5% for October 2026 — a ceiling 1.1 points above the 0.4% July reading, with core at just 0.3% and prices actually falling month-on-month. Resolves ~3 Nov 2026.
The Swiss Federal Statistical Office reported consumer prices 0.4% higher than a year earlier in July 2026, down from 0.5% in June, with the index FALLING 0.1% on the month and core inflation — excluding fresh and seasonal products, energy and fuel — at just 0.3%. The monthly decline came from cheaper air fares (−4.3%), diesel (−5.8%) and petrol (−2.4%). Our ceiling sits 1.1pt above that reading.
We lock a binary: Switzerland's annual consumer price inflation rate for October 2026 prints at or below 1.5%, per the Federal Statistical Office. Confidence 94%.
Swiss annual inflation was 0.4% in July and easing, core was 0.3%, and the price index actually declined 0.1% over the month. Reaching 1.5% within three months would require nearly quadrupling the annual rate in an economy whose structural strength — a persistently firm franc that suppresses imported costs — works in the opposite direction. This is the highest-confidence lock in the tranche at 94%. It is not 95%+ because a sharp franc reversal or an energy shock would transmit quickly through a small open economy, and because a rate this close to zero can move proportionally fast on a small absolute change. Scored on the headline annual rate.
RAOSCAFF locks P-196 on 2026-08-21, before the October release. Scored against Switzerland's October 2026 headline annual CPI rate versus a 1.5% ceiling.
A franc reversal or energy shock transmits fast in a small open economy, and a rate near zero moves proportionally fast on small absolute changes.