90% probability silver closes calendar 2026 at or above US$38 per troy ounce. Spot was $69.63 on 21 August after a 79% twelve-month run. The floor sits 45% below that, and this brief explains why it is set so far down rather than closer.
Silver traded at US$69.63 per troy ounce on 21 August 2026, up 2.29% on the day, 16.60% over the month and 79.00% over twelve months, on safe-haven demand amid currency and bond-market volatility. Our floor sits 45% below that level.
We lock a binary: the silver spot price at the final close of calendar 2026 is at or above US$38.00 per troy ounce. Confidence 90%.
Silver at $69.63 has risen 79% in twelve months and 16.6% in the last month alone. A floor set close to spot would look bold and be reckless. Silver is the most violent of the major metals: in 2011 it peaked near $49 in April and traded around $26 by September, a fall of roughly 47% in five months, following a run of comparable character to this one. A 45% drawdown from here is therefore not a tail we can wave away — it is a move this market has made in living memory, over a shorter window than the one we are forecasting into. So the floor sits at $38, and confidence is 90% rather than the 93% a superficially similar commodity lock would carry. What supports the floor is that silver has a large industrial demand base — solar and electronics — that gold does not, which puts a firmer bid under it than a purely monetary metal. Scored on the spot price, not a futures settlement.
RAOSCAFF locks P-197 on 2026-08-21. Scored against the silver spot price at the final close of calendar 2026 versus a US$38.00 per troy ounce floor.
Silver fell ~47% in five months after a comparable run in 2011. That precedent is why the floor is 45% down and confidence is 90%, not 93%.