92% probability ICE Arabica Coffee C settles at or below 500 cents per pound on 1 December 2026 — a ceiling 54% above the 324.35c of 21 August and comfortably above the 432c 52-week high. Resolves 1 Dec 2026.
ICE Arabica Coffee C closed at 324.35 US cents per pound ($3.24) on 21 August 2026, within a 52-week range of 244c to 432c and up 2.4% over thirty days. Our ceiling sits 54% above that close and about 16% above the top of the 52-week range.
We lock a binary: the ICE Arabica Coffee C front-month contract settles at or below 500.00 US cents per pound on 1 December 2026. Confidence 92%.
Coffee closed at 324.35c against a 52-week range of 244c to 432c. Our 500c ceiling is not just 54% above the current price — it sits roughly 16% ABOVE the highest level this market has reached in a year, which is the more meaningful test. Confidence 92%, not higher, because arabica is genuinely weather-exposed: a Brazilian frost or a drought in the Cerrado can move this contract 40% in weeks, and the 52-week range itself shows a 77% spread between low and high. The December window also sits close to the Brazilian flowering assessment period. Scored on the front-month settlement, not the cash or spot-differential price.
RAOSCAFF locks P-199 on 2026-08-21. Scored against the ICE Arabica Coffee C front-month settlement on 1 December 2026 versus a 500 cents-per-pound ceiling.
Arabica is weather-exposed — a Brazilian frost or Cerrado drought can move this contract 40% in weeks, and the 52-week range already spans 77%.