93% probability SLB's Q3 2026 revenue lands at or above $8.5 billion — roughly 5% below the $8.97bn of Q2, against guidance for 3–4% sequential growth and a $10bn fourth-quarter exit rate. The two-hundredth lock in the series. Resolves ~16 Oct 2026.
SLB reported Q2 2026 revenue of $8.97bn, ahead of a $8.757bn estimate, with EPS of $0.55 and adjusted EBITDA of $1.899bn at a 21.2% margin. Management guided to 3–4% sequential global revenue growth and targets a $10bn revenue exit rate in Q4 2026 at a 24% EBITDA margin, with data-centre revenue of about $2bn in 2026. Source: SLB Q2 2026 results.
We lock a binary: SLB reports third-quarter 2026 revenue of at least $8.5 billion, per the company's results release. Confidence 93%.
SLB delivered $8.97bn in Q2 and guided to 3–4% sequential revenue growth, which points to roughly $9.2–$9.3bn in Q3, against a stated $10bn exit rate for the fourth quarter. Our floor sits about 5% below the quarter already banked — that is, meaningfully below a number management expects to exceed rather than merely meet. Oilfield services revenue also rests on multi-year international and offshore contracts that do not reprice quarterly. Confidence 93%, not higher, because this business remains levered to operator capital budgets, and a sharp oil-price fall would show up in activity within a quarter or two. Scored on TOTAL revenue, not the Digital segment and not adjusted EBITDA.
RAOSCAFF locks P-200 on 2026-08-21, before the Q3 release. Scored against SLB's reported third-quarter 2026 total revenue versus an $8.5 billion floor.
Levered to operator capital budgets — a sharp oil-price fall shows up in activity within a quarter or two.