93% probability the CBOE Volatility Index closes calendar 2026 at or below 32 — roughly double its 15.81 August average. Volatility is the rare market series that genuinely mean-reverts, which is what makes this forecastable at all.
The VIX averaged 15.81 in August 2026 and dipped to 14.2 mid-month, its lowest level of 2026, having ranged between 14.18 and 20.88 over the 24 July to 24 August period. Our ceiling sits roughly double the August average.
We lock a binary: the CBOE Volatility Index's final close of calendar 2026 is at or below 32.00. Confidence 93%.
Volatility is the one major market series with a genuine structural property working in a forecaster's favour: it mean-reverts. Spikes are violent but short — the index does not sit at elevated levels for months, because the fear that drives it decays. The VIX averaged 15.81 in August and touched a 2026 low of 14.2, and our ceiling is roughly double that. Year-end closes are also seasonally subdued: December has historically been among the calmer months. Confidence 93% and not higher because the ceiling is a single date, not an average — a crisis landing in late December would put the close above 32 regardless of how calm the preceding eleven months were, and 2008 closed the year at roughly 40. Scored on the closing level of the spot VIX, not a futures contract.
RAOSCAFF locks P-202 on 2026-08-25. Scored against the CBOE Volatility Index closing level on the last trading day of calendar 2026 versus a ceiling of 32.
A single-date ceiling, not an average — a crisis landing in late December decides it regardless of a calm year. The VIX closed 2008 near 40.