92% probability the Nikkei 225 closes calendar 2026 inside a 50,000–82,000 band — roughly 24% either side of the 65,528.09 close on 24 August. Direction is explicitly not predicted.
The Nikkei 225 closed at 65,528.09 on 24 August 2026, down 488.27 points or 0.74% from the previous close of 66,016.36, with technology stocks under pressure ahead of Nvidia's results. Our band sits roughly 24% below and 25% above that close.
We lock a binary: the Nikkei 225's final close of calendar 2026 falls inside a 50,000 to 82,000 band. Confidence 92%. Direction is explicitly not predicted.
Our Nikkei band is deliberately wider in percentage terms than the S&P band in P-201, for two specific reasons. First, the index is unusually semiconductor-heavy, and it was already softening into this lock on chip weakness ahead of Nvidia's results — a concentrated sector exposure amplifies moves in both directions. Second, and more importantly, Japanese equities carry a policy variable the US index does not: the Bank of Japan is in a tightening cycle, the 10-year JGB yield has climbed roughly 130 basis points in a year, and yen moves transmit directly into an export-weighted index. In August 2024 this index fell more than 12% in a single session on a policy-and-carry shock. Confidence 92%, a point below the S&P call, and the band is wider to match. Scored on the official close.
RAOSCAFF locks P-203 on 2026-08-25. Scored against the Nikkei 225's official closing level on the last trading day of calendar 2026 versus a 50,000–82,000 band.
Semiconductor-heavy and policy-exposed: the BoJ is tightening, JGB yields are up ~130bp in a year, and this index fell over 12% in a single session in August 2024.