92% probability the DAX closes calendar 2026 inside a 21,000–32,000 band — roughly 20% below and 22% above the 26,312 level of 25 August, reached close to record highs. Direction is explicitly not predicted.
The DAX stood at 26,312 points on 25 August 2026, up 0.79% on the session, having set a record high of 26,573.50 on 12 August and pulled back to 25,983.04 on 20 August as bond yields stayed elevated. Our band sits roughly 20% below and 22% above the 25 August level.
We lock a binary: the DAX 40's final close of calendar 2026 falls inside a 21,000 to 32,000 band. Confidence 92%. Direction is explicitly not predicted.
The DAX set a record on 12 August and has traded in a roughly 600-point range around 26,000 since, which is an orderly market rather than a stressed one. Our band allows a 20% fall or a 22% rise. The specific risk we name — and it is the same one that drives our Bund lock in P-198 — is that German long yields are at their highest since 2011, pushed there by an oil-driven inflation scare. Equity valuations at record highs are precisely what a sustained rise in the discount rate compresses, so the two locks are related exposures rather than independent bets, and we say so. Confidence 92%. Scored on the DAX performance index official close, the standard quoted measure.
RAOSCAFF locks P-204 on 2026-08-25. Scored against the DAX's official closing level on the last trading day of calendar 2026 versus a 21,000–32,000 band.
Related exposure, disclosed: German long yields at a 2011 high (see P-198) are exactly what compresses a record-high equity index. These two locks are not independent.