88% probability Reckitt keeps its FY2026 Core like-for-like net revenue growth guidance floor at or above 4% at its Q3 update — the range it reaffirmed at H1 after Core LFL accelerated from 1.3% in Q1 to 4.2% in Q2. Resolves ~27 Oct 2026.
Reckitt reported H1 2026 net revenue of £6,411m with GROUP like-for-like growth of 2.6%, while CORE Reckitt like-for-like growth accelerated from 1.3% in Q1 to 4.2% in Q2. It reaffirmed unchanged full-year guidance of 4–5% Core like-for-like net revenue growth and a 24.9–25.6% operating margin. Emerging-market LFL rose from 7.6% to 9.4%; North America returned to +2.8% after −0.9%. Source: Reckitt H1 2026 results.
We lock a binary: Reckitt's full-year 2026 Core like-for-like net revenue growth guidance floor is at or above 4% as stated at its third-quarter update. Confidence 88%.
This brief exists in a release carrying two similarly-named growth figures, and the distinction decides the call. GROUP like-for-like growth was 2.6% in H1. CORE Reckitt like-for-like growth — the continuing portfolio the company guides on — accelerated from 1.3% in Q1 to 4.2% in Q2. The 4–5% full-year guidance applies to CORE, not to group, and that is the number we lock. A reader who scored this against the 2.6% group figure would reach the opposite conclusion. Confidence 88%, deliberately lower than most guidance-floor locks in this series, because the full-year range requires the second half to sustain the Q2 pace rather than the Q1 pace, and household-goods volumes are exposed to consumer trade-down. Scored on the guidance STATED at Q3, not on the quarter's realised growth.
RAOSCAFF locks P-209 on 2026-08-26, before the Q3 update. Scored against the low end of Reckitt's full-year 2026 Core like-for-like net revenue growth guidance as stated at its third-quarter trading update.
The full-year range needs H2 to sustain the Q2 pace (4.2%) rather than the Q1 pace (1.3%); consumer trade-down is the disclosed tail.