94% probability Hon Hai's Q3 2026 revenue reaches at least NT$2.4 trillion — a floor set BELOW the NT$2.53 trillion of Q2, in a quarter the company itself guides to significant sequential growth as AI servers pass half of revenue. Resolves ~12 Nov 2026.
Hon Hai reported Q2 2026 revenue of NT$2.53 trillion, up 41% year-on-year, with record second-quarter operating profit of NT$94.8bn and net profit of NT$60bn (EPS NT$4.27). Cloud and networking products including AI servers reached 51% of revenue, passing half for the first time. The company guided the July–September quarter to significant sequential and strong year-on-year growth. Source: Hon Hai Q2 2026 results, August 2026.
We lock a binary: Hon Hai Precision Industry reports third-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue of at least NT$2.4 trillion. Confidence 94%.
Three things stack here. First, our floor sits about 5% BELOW the NT$2.53 trillion Hon Hai delivered in the second quarter, while the company guides the third to significant sequential growth. Second, the September quarter is the seasonal peak for consumer electronics assembly as new handset builds ramp, on top of AI-server demand that has already carried cloud and networking past half of total revenue. Third — and this is what lifts confidence to 94% — Hon Hai publishes revenue MONTHLY, so by the time this resolves the figure is largely observable rather than forecast. Confidence is not higher because contract manufacturing revenue is concentrated in a small number of customers, and a single major customer's build-schedule change moves the quarter. Scored on consolidated revenue in New Taiwan dollars.
RAOSCAFF locks P-211 on 2026-08-26, before the Q3 release. Scored against Hon Hai Precision Industry's reported third-quarter 2026 consolidated revenue versus an NT$2.4 trillion floor.
Contract manufacturing revenue is concentrated in few customers — a single major customer's build-schedule change moves the quarter.