93% probability ABB's Q3 2026 revenue lands at or above $9.0 billion — roughly 5% below the $9.5bn of Q2, in a quarter the company itself guides to low-to-mid-teens comparable growth after record orders. Resolves ~20 Oct 2026.
ABB reported record Q2 2026 results with orders up 28% year-on-year to about $12bn, revenues up 12% to $9.5bn and Operational EBITA margin up 90 basis points to 20.2%. It raised full-year growth guidance to a low-double-digit to low-teens increase in comparable revenues, and guided Q3 to low- to mid-teens comparable revenue growth. Source: ABB Q2 2026 results.
We lock a binary: ABB reports third-quarter 2026 revenue of at least $9.0 billion. Confidence 93%.
ABB books orders before it recognises revenue, so an order intake of roughly $12bn in Q2, up 28%, is a forward indicator of the revenue line rather than a coincident one. The company raised full-year guidance and guided the third quarter specifically to low- to mid-teens comparable growth, while our floor sits about 5% BELOW the quarter already delivered. Confidence 93%, not higher, because ABB reports in dollars while earning substantially in euros, Swiss francs and Asian currencies, so translation can compress a reported figure even when volumes hold. Scored on TOTAL reported revenue in US dollars, not the comparable-growth percentage, which strips currency and portfolio effects.
RAOSCAFF locks P-213 on 2026-08-26, before the Q3 release. Scored against ABB Ltd's reported third-quarter 2026 total revenue versus a $9.0 billion floor.
ABB reports in dollars while earning in euros, francs and Asian currencies — translation can compress the reported figure even when volumes hold.