93% probability Comcast's Q3 2026 adjusted EBITDA lands at or above $8.3 billion — roughly 7% below the $8.90bn of Q2, in a business simultaneously losing broadband customers and adding wireless lines at a record pace. Resolves ~23 Oct 2026.
Comcast reported Q2 2026 consolidated revenue of $29.94bn and adjusted EBITDA of $8.90bn at a 40.2% margin, with adjusted EPS of $1.04 and free cash flow of $4,604m. Domestic broadband customers fell by 167,000 (an improvement of 34,000 year-on-year) and domestic broadband revenue declined, while domestic wireless lines rose by a record 448,000 to 10.2 million. Source: Comcast Q2 2026 results, 23 July 2026.
We lock a binary: Comcast reports third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA of at least $8.3 billion. Confidence 93%.
We are not going to pretend this is a growth story. Comcast lost 167,000 domestic broadband customers in the quarter and domestic broadband revenue declined on lower average rates. What keeps the earnings floor intact is that the cable infrastructure is already built: the marginal cost of serving a customer is low, wireless lines ride on that same base and grew by a record 448,000, and management has been protecting margin — 40.2% in Q2 — through cost discipline rather than volume. Our floor sits about 7% below the quarter just delivered. Confidence 93%, not higher, precisely because the subscriber trend is negative: a business shedding its highest-margin product line has a floor that erodes over time, and we are locking one quarter, not a trajectory. Scored on ADJUSTED EBITDA, not revenue and not free cash flow.
RAOSCAFF locks P-215 on 2026-08-26, before the Q3 release. Scored against Comcast Corporation's reported third-quarter 2026 adjusted EBITDA versus an $8.3 billion floor.
The subscriber trend is negative — a business shedding its highest-margin product has an eroding floor. We lock one quarter, not a trajectory.