A floor under a falling business — ≥−5%, locked at 90%.

90% probability Diageo's H1 FY2027 organic net sales growth is no worse than −5%. This is not a growth call: organic net sales FELL 2.0% in fiscal 2026, with North America down 8.4%. We are locking how far the decline goes, not whether it reverses. Resolves ~Feb 2027.

Type · Prediction Lock · decline-bounded floor Locked · 2026-08-26 · before the interim results Resolves · ~2027-02-02 · Diageo H1 FY2027 interim results (diageo.com) Scored · binary: H1 FY2027 organic net sales growth ≥−5% yes/no

Diageo H1 FY2027 organic net sales growth · our locked floor

≥ −5%

organic net sales growth · vs −2.0% for full-year FY2026

Diageo reported fiscal 2026 (year ended 30 June 2026) reported net sales of $19,643m, down 3.0%, with organic net sales down 2.0% on volume −0.4% and price/mix −1.6%. North America fell 8.4% and Asia Pacific 6.3%, while Europe rose 3.4%, Latin America 7.7% and Africa 13.3%. Operating profit before exceptionals grew 2.0% organically to $5,683m as the Accelerate programme delivered $540m of savings. Source: Diageo fiscal 2026 preliminary results.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Diageo H1 FY2027 organic net sales growth is no worse than −5% — P = 0.90.

We lock a binary: Diageo reports first-half fiscal-2027 organic net sales growth of no worse than negative 5%. Confidence 90%. This is a floor under a decline, not a forecast of recovery.

— 2 · Locking the shape of a contraction

Spirits demand is falling. The question worth forecasting is how fast.

Diageo's organic net sales fell 2.0% across fiscal 2026, with North America — its largest profit pool — down 8.4%. A brief claiming this business is about to grow would be wishful. What is forecastable is the shape of the contraction, and three things bound it. The decline is regionally uneven rather than universal: Europe grew 3.4%, Latin America 7.7% and Africa 13.3%, so roughly half the portfolio is still expanding. The drag is concentrated: excluding Chinese white spirits, group organic net sales would have been about 1.5 points higher. And spirits volumes are structurally slow-moving, with brand equity and distribution that do not collapse in six months. Confidence 90% — the lowest in this tranche — because a business already declining has no cushion, and further weakness in North America would push straight through this floor. Scored on ORGANIC net sales growth, not reported net sales, which fell 3.0% on currency.

Locked on 2026-08-26 — scored against Diageo's reported H1 FY2027 organic net sales growth.

RAOSCAFF locks P-218 on 2026-08-26, before the interim results. Scored against Diageo plc's reported first-half fiscal-2027 organic net sales growth versus a −5% floor.

Locked: 2026-08-26 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2027-02-02 — Diageo H1 FY2027 interim results (six months to 31 December 2026)
Source: Diageo plc interim results for the six months to 31 December 2026, organic net sales growth (diageo.com investor relations)
Scored by: Binary: YES if reported H1 FY2027 ORGANIC net sales growth is ≥−5.0% (that is, a decline of no more than 5%, or any increase); NO if the decline is worse than 5%. ORGANIC net sales growth — NOT reported net sales growth (−3.0% in FY2026 on currency), NOT volume growth, and NOT organic operating profit growth, which was POSITIVE at +2.0%.

A business already in decline has no cushion — further North American weakness pushes straight through this floor.