India's Q1 FY27 GDP, locked before the print.

India real GDP for Q1 FY27 (Apr–Jun 2026) locked in a 6.3%–7.3% YoY band (74% confidence) — before MoSPI publishes (~Aug 29–31). The RBI's June MPC pegs Q1 at 6.6%; we envelop it with a ±0.5pp band.

Type · Prediction Lock · single-print numerical Locked · 2026-06-21 · before the MoSPI release Resolves · ~2026-08-31 · MoSPI Q1 FY27 first-print estimate Scored · binary band hit/miss vs the first-print provisional figure

Locked band · Q1 FY27 real GDP YoY

6.3%–7.3%

74% confidence · mid-point 6.8%

RBI June-2026 MPC projects Q1 FY27 at 6.6% (center of our band). Q4 FY26 printed 7.8% (MoSPI). Band midpoint 6.8% sits above RBI's point; band calibrated for release-date and base-effect uncertainty.

— 1 · The Locked Call

Real GDP prints inside 6.3%–7.3% — a 1-point calibrated band.

We lock a single band claim: India Q1 FY27 real GDP YoY growth (first-print, MoSPI) falls in [6.3%, 7.3%]. Confidence 74%. The RBI's June-2026 MPC projection of 6.6% sits in the lower half of the band; Q4 FY26 at 7.8% anchors the upper end.

— 2 · Why it's nail-able

RBI's own 6.6% projection anchors the center; release ~Aug 29–31.

The RBI June-2026 MPC (rbi.org.in) raised Q1 FY27 GDP to 6.6% while cutting FY27 full-year to 6.6%. Q4 FY26 printed 7.8% (MoSPI first-print, base 2011-12). The band [6.3–7.3%] envelops the RBI point with a ±0.5pp buffer for release-date slippage and base-effect revision. Resolves against MoSPI's Q1 FY27 advance estimate, expected ~Aug 29–31 2026; if the release slips to Sep 1, resolution waits for the first official MoSPI print.

Locked on 2026-06-21 — scored against the MoSPI Q1 FY27 first-print provisional figure.

RAOSCAFF locks P-22 on 2026-06-21, before MoSPI publishes the Q1 FY27 GDP estimate. Resolves as binary band hit/miss against the first official MoSPI print.

Locked: 2026-06-21 (commit timestamp on origin/main)
Resolves: ~2026-08-31 — MoSPI / NSO Q1 FY27 GDP first-print release (first official date)
Source: MoSPI / NSO, Quarterly GDP Estimates (base 2011-12), YoY real growth rate
Scored by: Binary: YES if first-print YoY ∈ [6.3%, 7.3%]; NO otherwise

If MoSPI revises prior quarters, we score against the Q1 FY27 row in the first release only — not a subsequent revision.