87% probability the US import price index for goods from China rises year-on-year in October 2026. It fell 1.1% year-on-year in March, then rose 1.3% by June, and the June monthly advance of 0.9% was the largest since January 2008. This is the pro-thesis half of a paired test.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics import price index for goods from China fell 1.1% over the 12 months to March 2026, then ROSE 1.3% over the 12 months to June 2026. Monthly advances were 0.7% in March (largest since December 2021), 0.9% in May and 0.9% in June — the largest monthly advance since January 2008. Published in Table 7, Import Price Indexes by Locality of Origin. Source: BLS US Import and Export Price Indexes.
We lock a binary: the US import price index for goods from China shows a positive 12-month change in the October 2026 release. Confidence 87%.
These two facts are both true and they sit uneasily together, which is exactly why this is worth locking. China's producer prices are −3.5% and its export prices are roughly 4% below a year earlier. Yet the price Americans pay for Chinese goods flipped from −1.1% year-on-year in March to +1.3% by June, with the largest single-month advance since January 2008. Something is intervening between the factory gate and the US border — currency, product mix, freight, or supply-chain repricing. We do not claim to know which, and we are not going to pretend otherwise. What we lock is the observable: does the index keep rising. Confidence 87%, the lowest in this tranche, for two honest reasons. The series has only recently turned, so we are extrapolating a young trend. And BLS import price indexes traditionally EXCLUDE import duties, so tariff effects do not mechanically appear here — meaning the rise is a real price signal but also one that could fade as quickly as it arrived.
RAOSCAFF locks P-225 on 2026-08-27, before the October release. Scored against the 12-month change in the US import price index for goods from China as published for October 2026.
A young trend being extrapolated, and BLS import price indexes traditionally EXCLUDE duties — so this is a real price signal that could fade as fast as it appeared.