93% probability China's broad money supply grows at least 7.0% year-on-year in October 2026. M2 ran 8.8% in July, 8.0% in June, 8.6% in May and 9.0% in January — consistently ahead of forecasts that had expected a slowdown to around 7.1% for the year.
China's broad money supply M2 grew 8.8% year-on-year in July 2026, after 8.0% in June, 8.6% in May and 9.0% in January, with total social financing up 9% in July. Forecasts had expected M2 growth to slow from 7.8% in 2025 to about 7.1% in 2026; the outturns have run consistently above that. NOTE: reported M2 LEVELS conflict across sources, so this lock is on the GROWTH RATE only. Source: People's Bank of China financial statistics.
We lock a binary: China's broad money supply M2 grows at least 7.0% year-on-year in October 2026. Confidence 93%.
M2 growth has run in a narrow 8.0–9.0% band through 2026, consistently above the roughly 7.1% that forecasters expected for the year, and monetary aggregates are among the slowest-moving series any forecaster deals with: a central bank cannot swing broad money by a point in a quarter without a deliberate policy break. Our floor sits about 1.8 points below the July reading. Confidence 93%, not higher, because the People's Bank has been actively managing liquidity against a weak-demand backdrop and a policy decision to tighten would show here first. One methodological note we will not bury: while checking this, we found published M2 LEVELS that do not reconcile across sources — June reported at CNY356.71 trillion and July at CNY329.94 trillion, which cannot both be correct in a growing series. The growth rate is consistent everywhere. So we lock the growth rate and never the level, and we say why.
RAOSCAFF locks P-226 on 2026-08-27, before the October release. Scored against China's October 2026 M2 year-on-year growth rate versus a 7.0% floor.
The PBoC is actively managing liquidity against weak demand — a deliberate tightening decision would show here first.